Code-Red: Super Elnino Is Coming
By: The Syokimau Residents Association (SRA) Environment Team
The warnings are flashing red, and the global climate models are aligned. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the US Climate Prediction Center (NOAA), there is an 82% chance of an El Niño transition by July 2026, intensifying sharply as we head into the later months of the year. Nationally, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has already urged early preparedness, noting that while our current seasonal rains fade, the soil remains heavily saturated, drastically increasing the risk of flash floods when the El Niño short rains hit.
For Syokimau, this isn’t just a weather forecast—it is an existential threat. We all know our history. Syokimau has become synonymous with perennial flooding. But let us be clear: our suffering is not just a natural disaster; it is aggravated by human greed, institutional neglect, and rogue developers.
As the SRA Environment Team, we have written endless letters, knocked on every regulatory door, and even gone to court to sue rogue developers who have—with the shocking complicity of county officials—built structures right on top of our natural waterways.
We cannot afford to sit back and wait to see ourselves and our properties submerged. We must act now at our individual and community levels to protect our homes, while aggressively holding the government to account.
What We Can Do Right Now (Individual & Court Levels)
We must secure our immediate perimeters. Do not wait for the first downpour to realize your property is vulnerable.
At the Individual Home Level:
- Clear Your Internal Drains: Ensure all gutters, downpipes, and drainage trenches within your compound are free of silt, debris, and plastic waste.
- Elevate Critical Assets: Mechanically raise your water pumps, generators, and solar inverter systems above historic flood levels. Move expensive electronics and household valuables to upper floors if possible.
- Install Check-Valves: Fit non-return valves on your sewer and greywater drainage pipes to prevent filthy floodwater from backing up into your bathrooms and sinks.
- Stock Up Safely: Ensure your underground water tanks are well-sealed so floodwaters do not contaminate your domestic water supply.
At the Estate/Court Level:
- Execute Joint Court Clean-ups: Court committees must mobilize residents for urgent and dedicated plans to desilt and widen the shared drainage networks leading out of our courts. This shall help evacuate stormwater from our courts to the nearest public drainage.
- Construct Sandbag Barriers: Identify low-lying, vulnerable storm water entry points into your courts and pre-emptively stockpile sandbags.
- Create Emergency Response Teams: Appoint a court-level team to monitor water levels, map out safe evacuation routes for children and the elderly, and keep emergency contacts handy.
- Have emergency contacts on your phones. This will help should an SOS call be necessary.
Call to Action: Government Step Up
While we do our part, individual efforts cannot fix structural failure. The national government disaster management agencies, Machakos County Government, the Water Resources Authority (WRA), and the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) cannot claim ignorance.
The SRA Environment Team has been writing continuously and strongly to all the relevant authorities and has even held meetings demanding action. We continue to voice our demands that the following five proactive measures be executed before the rains begin:
Mark & Peg Sabaki River
WRA must immediately deploy surveyors to physically map out and peg the boundaries of the Sabaki River tributaries flowing through Syokimau. Riparian zones must be clearly demarcated to stop further encroachment. This region is now critical and dangerous following the construction of the Nairobi Expressway, which has drained heavy storm waters to the water way puting residents at great danger.
FreezeApprovals on Waterways
Machakos County must immediately freeze the issuance of all building approvals that are along the Sabaki River Way in Syokimau until a comprehensive hydrological survey is completed. No more approvals on wetlands, period.
Trench River Channels
The County Government must deploy heavy machinery to excavate, widen, and trench the river channels. All siltation, heavy overgrowth, and choking blockages must be cleared out to allow free, high-volume water flow.
Demolish Obstructions
NEMA and WRA must move in with bulldozers to bring down all developments sitting illegally on our waterways. It is time to stop coddling rogue developers; arrest and prosecute those putting thousands of lives at risk. Some of these developments have proceeded as our environment team is shouting at is loudest in our courts and writing to authorities.
Enforce Court Orders
SRA has fought hard in the courts and won some orders halting illegal constructions. Yet, rogue developers continue building. The police and county enforcement officers must execute these court orders strictly and without bias.
A Note to Our Leaders:
Every year, we watch our investments wash away while you issue reactive statements of “regret” after lives and properties are lost. We have given you the maps, we have given you the court orders, and we have pointed out the problem areas. This time, the blame for any loss of life or property in Syokimau will sit squarely on your desks.
Residents, let’s protect our gates. Government, we demand you clear our water ways!
Share this article widely across your court WhatsApp groups. Stay vigilant, stay prepared.
Authorities
The Star Newspaper
Climate Predictions Center
